Ukraine’s prospects: recovery in question

A few years on the scale of human history – how long is it? Just a blink of an eye. But for an individual state, it is a huge period of time, determining the future for generations to come. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has clearly demonstrated this. Over the past thousand-odd days, the country has experienced the unimaginable horrors of the bloodiest and most destructive war since the middle of the 20^th century. The deprivations and challenges Ukraine faced have changed it beyond recognition.

The devastating impact of the ongoing war

The attack on Ukraine has caused catastrophic losses to the country’s economy which has shrunk by 25% compared to 2021. The Kiel Institute estimates that Ukraine will lose about $120 billion in economic output and nearly $1 trillion in capital by 2026. Systematic attacks by the Russians on civilian infrastructure have resulted in the destruction of numerous towns and villages. The total amount of damages inflicted upon Ukraine’s infrastructure reached $176 billion at the beginning of 2025. Hence, many Ukrainians have lost their homes, babies are born in bomb shelters, pupils are studying underground, while doctors in ruined hospitals are saving other lives, risking their own under the bombardment of the “Russian world”.

But the worst happened to the population. Hostilities have taken the lives of many thousands of Ukrainians. The figures vary shockingly. President Zelensky said in December 2024 that since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has lost 43,000 of its warriors killed. A bit later President Trump claimed that Ukraine has lost about 700,000 of its soldiers. Civilian casualties are no less serious, and as long as the war lasts, coupled with the ongoing occupation of Ukrainian territories, they cannot be reasonably counted.
The loss of people due to external displacement is much higher. In present-day Ukraine, the population has decreased by 10 million people, from 42 to 32 million in just three years since the invasion. According to the UN, the official number of Ukrainian refugees in the world as of August 2025 almost reaches 6 million people.

The exile of a given number of people in such a short period of time is a tragedy for any nation. However, this is only part of Ukraine’s demographic catastrophe. One should not forget about the gender and age structure of Ukrainians who fled abroad – 80% of them are women and children. If most of them do not return, this would have dramatic implications demographically and for the labour force.

In reality, such consequences are already becoming apparent. Based on recent CIA data, Ukraine tops the list of the world’s countries with the highest mortality and lowest birth rate. The death rate in Ukraine is three times higher. In turn, Reuters points to threats to Ukraine’s economic growth and post-war recovery amid labour shortages. Hostilities and mobilisation have depleted the country’s workforce, so the government estimates that in the coming years Ukraine will need at least 4.5 million workers.

Ukraine strikes back, no matter what

This is by no means all the tragic consequences of the Russian invasion. Still, Ukraine is leading a heroic resistance to an aggressor. The army, civil society, and authorities, supported by foreign allies, continue to confront a massive enemy. By all means, Ukraine proves the country is not going to surrender to the mercy of the invaders.
At the same time, partners in the West should not reassure themselves, as Ukrainian capabilities are not infinite. And fatigue from the unbearable tension in all spheres is increasingly making itself felt. Voltage is growing not only at the front, where cases of unauthorised abandonment of positions are becoming more frequent, but also deep in the rear, where tensions are growing in society. Some Ukrainians are dissatisfied with the ongoing mobilisation, while others blame their compatriots who fled Ukraine. And many more have become disillusioned with foreign allies and their “deepest concerns”, whose fear of decisive military aid for Ukraine is bringing the state to the brink of survival.
Indeed, war fatigue is growing. In Ukraine, this is real fatigue, soaked in blood and tears. In this regard, Ukrainians are smiling bitterly at every statement in the media that “the West is tired of war”. So tired of watching live military action online.

Country’s recovery postponed

At the outset of 2025, there was cautious hope that a ceasefire might soon be reached and that Ukraine’s reconstruction would therefore begin. Many things indicated that. First and foremost, the bold statements made by the new US leader. In Trump’s words, halting hostilities in Ukraine would be the top priority for him. He insisted that the war would end in the coming months, as the opposing sides were already ready to start peace talks.
Other signals also pointed to the likelihood of this. President Zelensky has become less adamant in his statements, admitting to a ceasefire and the start of negotiations with Russia without preconditions. Besides, in Ukraine itself, there has been increasing talk about the upcoming elections in the near future. Finally, European leaders began planning aloud to introduce their military contingents into Ukraine. It would have been difficult to reach a consensus on these issues without a clear vision that the war could end soon.
However, recent months have shown that a ceasefire followed by Ukraine’s recovery is unlikely. In my view, the main reason lies in the inconsistency of the new US Administration and the indecisiveness of European allies. It is difficult to expect a quick end to the war when the Americans suddenly begin to equate the victim of the attack with the aggressor, suspending or reducing military support. Moreover, they forced Ukraine at war to sign an agreement on the use of its mineral resources. Honestly, it looks like the robbery of a lifeless crime victim. And all this instead of achieving the initially promised “peace through strength”, that is, by influencing the one and only cause of the conflict – Russia and Putin. By the way, Trump is doing great with the latter: the red carpet in Alaska, friendly hugs, and another round of fruitless negotiations.

The timid stance of Europeans also raises many questions. Sure, in words, European allies support Ukraine and condemn the Russian invasion. But instead of long-awaited decisive action, we witness Europe’s usual indecisiveness. One may recall the May ultimatum from European leaders to Russia to cease fire. Months later, the unjust war continues without any tangible consequences for the aggressive Russian regime. All the allies’ promises to supply Ukraine with long-range weapons (including German-Swedish missiles Taurus) and deploy their military contingents as viable security guarantees also remain on paper.
This is why many in Ukraine have the feeling that the partners are actually fine with how things are. These beliefs have been reinforced by the NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recent comments that ending the war in Ukraine would increase threats to the Alliance. Regular reports about how Ukrainian refugees have helped strengthen the economies of their host countries also add to such disappointment. For instance, since 2022, the contribution of Ukrainian forced migrants to Poland’s GDP is estimated at $85 billion. At the same time, overall Polish spending on military, humanitarian, and social aid to Ukraine does not exceed $10 billion. The conclusions may be obvious, and they do not favour a ceasefire and the start of Ukraine’s reconstruction.

Undoubtedly, without the existing help from its allies, Ukraine would find it almost impossible to resist Russian aggression, but the aforementioned indecision plays into the hands of the Kremlin leader. For Putin, Ukraine is the only true obsession for the rest of his life. On this basis, no compromise proposals by Trump will satisfy the Russians. They will imitate the negotiation process and continue their barbaric aggression, stubbornly insisting on Ukraine’s capitulation. No strength – no peace.

Germany’s role in Ukraine’s future

That said, I am convinced that the prospects for a ceasefire and Ukraine’s future recovery still depend on efficient cooperation with its partners, including at the bilateral level. Here, one can’t overlook Germany’s leading role in supporting and rebuilding Ukraine. Over the last years, German-Ukrainian relations reached a strategic level of performance. For Ukraine, Germany has become the main partner in the EU. Not only in terms of military assistance, but also in economic interaction.

Germany also benefits greatly from this partnership. Firstly, a contribution to Ukraine’s recovery is a contribution to Germany’s own security. Whatever and whenever the current war ends, the threat from Russia is unlikely to disappear. In this context, an economically and militarily strong, free Ukraine should be a priority for Germany. It definitely needs such an ally with an experienced army on the eastern flank of Europe.

Secondly, German investments in Ukraine’s revival are “a contribution to a future EU member”. This is what Olaf Scholz believed. In December 2024, he said that about 2,000 German companies were already operating in Ukraine and they planned to expand their presence there. The massive inflow of German capital into Ukraine promises significant benefits, given the prospects for rapid economic growth in the post-war period. The only thing to advise here is that German investments should be diversified. Sure, the military-industrial complex should remain the top priority, but projects in other sectors are also extremely important for Ukraine’s comprehensive recovery.

Thirdly, the key role of Ukraine in Europe’s future is recognised by all global players. Thus, Germany should not miss its chance and effectively assert its leadership in Ukraine’s post-war rebuilding. This is especially relevant in the light of the growing economic and geopolitical competition between the EU and the Trump’s United States.
There are other reasons explaining the Germans’ increased interest in Ukraine. One is the Ukrainian diaspora in Germany, which has grown by 1.2 million people recently. This fact will also determine the relations of both countries in the coming years.
Given this, I have no doubt that the German-Ukrainian partnership in the post-war era will be mutually beneficial and will remain strategic.