What will become of Gaza? Where is the Palestinian conflict headed in the wake of Donald Trump’s »peace plans?« »It’s better to avoid prophecies, especially ones about the future.« We have heard such advice many times regarding the political prospects in the Middle East. And these days there is reason to be cautious. Given that the cease-fire is barely holding, that there are numerous »spoilers« around (also known as saboteurs), and that the American president is subject to mood swings, predictions must be taken with a grain of salt. Usually, they come either from wishful thinking or conceivable scenarios of failure.

Autocrats no longer have to fear sanctions when they violate fundamental liberal values. On the contrary, the Trump administration openly backs illiberal forces in Western democracies and happily cooperates with authoritarian rulers. The turn away from economic integration signifies that the central assumption of the democratic peace – that more cooperation makes conflicts among countries less likely – has been abandoned. China would like to revise the hierarchy of human rights: Liberal political rights should play second fiddle to economic and social rights. Thus, the heaven of liberal values lies in ruins.